Climate Action Plan 2020 - 2050

Nairobi city is the capital and largest city in Kenya and among the fastest-growing cities in East and Central Africa. It has complex temporal and spatial distributions of population, infrastructure, and socioeconomic activities. Rapid urbanization and unplanned settlement driven by rapid population growth and urban poverty lead the city to an urgency to act to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Nairobi’s most recent Greenhouse Gas Inventory is based on 2016 data and was developed in accordance with global best practice (GPC compliant). Results from the inventory showed that in 2016, total GHG emissions in the city of Nairobi amounted to 4.7 MtCO2e which is equivalent to 1.2 tCO2e per person. The transport sector had the largest contribution. A comparison of national and city-level total GHG emissions shows that Nairobi currently accounts for approximately 5% of Kenya’s total emissions. However, as the largest city in Kenya, Nairobi will likely 
contribute increasingly to national emissions. Nairobi’s 2016 inventory was modelled to project emissions to 2050, using 2025 and 2035 as interim years. By developing and comparing multiple emissions scenarios (Business-As-Usual - if no climate actions are implemented; Existing and Planned Scenario - using planned actions and global market trends; Ambitious Scenario - ambitious yet achievable actions if barriers are addressed; Extended Scenario - an even more ambitious scenario that would require major barriers to be removed, i.e. there is a risk it may not be achievable), Nairobi was able to determine the ideal set of actions required to become carbon neutral by 2050. The climate scenarios were compared with the emissions reduction that needs to be achieved to show adequate progress towards achieving an emissions reduction pathway in alignment with the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming below 1.5°C. In the ambitious scenario, the GHG reduction targets are only achieved in 2025 and 2035.

In 2050, climate actions implemented achieve a 66% reductions in emissions from the business-asusual scenario, with emissions of around 6 million tonnes still remaining. In order to meet the carbon neutrality goal, much more ambitious actions would be required, including more stringent enforcement of current regulations. An Extended Scenario was developed, considering more aggressive actions but substantive barriers will need to be addressed by Nairobi City County Government in order to move 
from the Ambitious trajectory to the Extended one. Through analysis of future projections and historical trends, three key climate hazards have been identified as prominent drivers within Nairobi: floods & storms, heat and drought. An assessment has identified impacts that may pose risks to social, natural and economic capital in Nairobi, producing a list of impacts for each climate hazard, which in turn were assessed, based on determined level of risk (likelihood and disruptiveness of event), on a low-medium-high scale.